NASCAR Title Picks: Back The Drivers Leading The Standings To Win Chase

Who will win the NASCAR Cup Series championship? That question is less difficult to answer this year than in the previous 12 years, as NASCAR doesn’t have four drivers with an equal shot of winning a title. The other two NASCAR national series are not so clear-cut. But in Cup, it’s so clear who will (likely) win that NASCAR will have only one Cup driver meet with the press Thursday at its championship weekend media day. Kyle Larson holds a 67-point lead on Christopher Bell and a 70-point lead on Denny Hamlin. Larson needs just nine points on the day — meaning he could clinch with just eight stage points — to clinch the title. And even if he doesn’t get that, Bell would need to win and earn 17 stage points (16 with the fastest lap) or Hamlin would need to win and earn 14 stage points (13 with the fastest lap). That makes this an easy prediction: Larson wins the title. Even if he collapses, the chances that Bell or Hamlin have such dominant days seem remote. Bell did earn 73 points earlier this year at Darlington, earned 18 stage points at the last 1.5-mile track (Charlotte) and does have a win in 2023 at Homestead. So he has a better chance of obtaining the 69-point day he needs (at 67 points behind and Larson guaranteed one spot for starting the race and owning the tiebreaker, Bell needs a minimum 69 points). Regardless, Homestead still appears to be a track where Larson (two wins in the last four years) and Tyler Reddick will be the drivers to beat. Hamlin has not had a 72-point day all year, although he has earned 17 stage points in four races this season. That 72-point day isn’t going to happen Sunday. What about the O’Reilly and truck championships? I’d say go with the points leaders there, too. Sorry, not sorry for taking the easy road to predicting. Justin Allgaier leads Jesse Love by 22 points in the O’Reilly standings while Corey Day is 23 points behind. Carson Kvapil is 31 points back and Sheldon Creed is 42 points behind. Allgaier is the defending winner of the Homestead race (March 2025), and he has qualified in the top five the last three years. He’s going to be fast and will be in the driver’s seat. Love has finishes of sixth last year and fourth the year before at Homestead. But he will need a better qualifying effort than in the past to put himself in position. He could, though, choose to go with an alternate strategy and with enough speed and savvy, win his second consecutive title. Many people want to pick Day, considering his sprint-car roots and likely comfort racing up near the wall. But in trucks, he did not start better than 16th nor finish better than 15th in two starts. Now, he does have four wins this year and Homestead would seem to be his track. But that’s a lot of pressure on a 20-year-old driver with limited asphalt experience. Kvapil was 10th last year in his one start at the track and while he is much improved, him winning and likely earning enough stage points to out-point Allgaier seems like a long shot. Creed pretty much needs to win and has led 17 laps in seven national series starts at the track. The feeling here is that Allgaier will hold on and win the title, being the lone regular-season champion to earn the crown. And in the trucks, regular-season champ Layne Riggs sits 20 points behind Kaden Honeycutt. The pick in this race should go to Riggs but Corey Heim is in this race and if Heim has no issues, he’ll be the prohibitive favorite. Riggs gaining 20 points on Honeycutt without the victory is a tall order because both will likely be top-five caliber. Riggs would be the favorite to beat Honeycutt straight up, but Honeycutt should keep him in his sights at the very least. So there you have it. My championship picks are in: Larson, Allgaier and Honeycutt.