2026 NCAA Tournament Projections: Michigan State Holds Strong; Big Ten Chaos

March has arrived, and no conference has more chaos than the Big Ten. In his latest NCAA Tournament projections, FOX Sports bracket forecaster Mike DeCourcy outlines a league defined by elite talent at the top and multiple teams clinging to at-large hopes. No team has surged more than Michigan State. Winners of five straight, the Spartans have climbed from a No. 4 seed to a No. 2 seed in DeCourcy’s latest projections after taking care of business at home against Rutgers on Thursday. With a road matchup against rival Michigan to close out the regular season, Tom Izzo’s team has a chance to cement its standing as a 2-seed. DeCourcy’s “Last Four In” and “First Four Out” remain unchanged, while Cincinnati, Seton Hall, San Diego State and Oklahoma State have fallen to the “Next Four Out.” With that, DeCourcy shares his latest NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament projections: EAST REGION SOUTH REGION MIDWEST REGION WEST REGION And it’s never too early to check in on the bubble. According to DeCourcy’s projections, Ohio State, Santa Clara, VCU and New Mexico are the last four teams in the tournament, while Indiana, Auburn, Cal and Virginia Tech are the first four out. As for conference representation, the SEC leads the way with 10 teams, while the Big Ten has nine teams. The ACC and the Big 12 each have eight teams in DeCourcy’s latest tournament projections. The Big East and the West Coast have three teams represented, while the Mountain West and Atlantic 10 have two teams. Selection Sunday is next weekend, and these projections will inevitably evolve. For now, DeCourcy’s latest bracket forecast offers a clear snapshot of who’s rising, who’s falling and which programs are already building the résumés they’ll need when March Madness arrives.